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General Election 2017

Discussion in 'In The News' started by abrony-mouse, 25 April 2017.

  1. CuldeeFell

    CuldeeFell Ponies Rock

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    One of my eternal regrets will always be that I never voted in an EU election. The only one I was ever eligible for was the 2014 election and to my shame I was politically ignorant enough that I didn't realise it was happening until after it had happened. And there weren't any more after that for me to vote in.

    Going off topic (slightly) but I'll be making sure to vote in the County Council elections we've got in my area on Thursday. I don't want to have a vote and not use it.
     
  2. Eunos the Fool

    Eunos the Fool Proud Hater of Sparity

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    Can we hurry up and get this election over with?

    I'm sick and tired of consistent posts about it on my Facebook wall.

    In Fact I'm sick and tired of Politics as a whole.
     
    Cloudane likes this.
  3. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Then going to a thread titled "General Election 2017" is probably not the best option...

    On topic, I wonder what (if any) difference tonight's local election results will make to the general election next month. A lot of councils haven't counted yet, but enough have to see the general patterns. Con doing very well, Lab doing badly, Lib Dems a bit disappointing and UKIP falling apart. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted at something similar in June.
     
  4. CuldeeFell

    CuldeeFell Ponies Rock

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    Labour seem to be going up in the polls based on the last few over the weekend:

    [​IMG]

    Obviously nowhere near enough to have the Conservatives shaking in their boots, but enough polls showing a big enough uptick that it looks real rather than a statistical fluke. A good response to the leaked draft manifesto perhaps? The BBC have written some interesting words about it here. If the polls are accurate (big if) it suggests a joint Conservative/ Labour share of close to 80%, the highest it's been since 1992. UKIP and the Lib Dems (and to a lesser extent the Greens) seem to be the losers here. Perhaps we could be seeing something of a return to two party politics...?
     
  5. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse Warrior

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    good news-ish - wish the Conservative vote hadn't also spiked upwards, but hopefully there will be a bit of opposition to the Tory right (regardless of whoever is leading the labour party)

    personally don't care about Labour's manifesto - whenever I hear them saying "under a Labour government" it just sounds like a silly fantasy, since the FPTP system is going to keep them out for the foreseeable future, but the more MPs they can not lose the better
     
  6. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I think the graph that @CuldeeFell posted suggests a few reasons why Labour's vote has inched up:

    1. UKIP are falling apart. With Brexit now happening, they don't really have a reason to exist any more. Although most of their voters are likely to go to the Tories, not all will. Some of the Kippers' support has come from traditional working-class Labour places -- as many of those (albeit not all) voted heavily Leave.

    2. The Liberal Democrats have been doing very poorly. Even allowing for their low base from last time, I expected them to be running at at least 15% in the polls by now -- especially given they got 18% in the local elections. So there's likely to be less of a split in the anti-Tory vote than initially expected.

    3. Personal opinion, but I think Jeremy Corbyn himself has come across fairly well so far. Not all his spokespeople have managed it, but the man himself hasn't performed too badly. This will have reassured at least some Labourites who like Corbyn's policies but have worried that he's ineffective as a leader.

    The Tories are clearly still going to win, and probably by a landslide. Electoral Calculus currently predicts an overall majority of 170, which would be fairly similar to the 179 Labour achieved in 1997. But I don't think we're heading for the sort of earthquake they had in Canada (which also uses FPTP) in 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives fell from 156 seats to two!
     
    Aldersgate and CuldeeFell like this.
  7. Aldersgate

    Aldersgate Honorary Pony

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    One of the more concerning things I read (from my own political POV anyway, appreciating not all will share it!) is the way that UKIP is operating at present. There were a fairly substantial number of marginal seats for Labour/Lib Dems or with incumbent Hard Brexit Tories where they've withdrawn their candidates. If their voters switch to the Conservatives, this would have a much greater impact that the fairly minimal "progressive alliance" stuff that is swirling around at the moment in some of the marginals. Who knows what this will mean when it comes to final numbers, but a 170ish majority sounds about right at the minute.
     

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