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European Union Membership Referendum Thursday 23rd June 2016

Discussion in 'In The News' started by vaska00762, 21 February 2016.

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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Poll closed 23 June 2016.
  1. Remain a member of the European Union

    80.0%
  2. Leave the European Union

    20.0%
  1. Recurrent Trotting

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    you don't get me I'm part of the uuuuunion :D

    that song actually says "I always get my way when I strike for higher pay" D: daaamn

    but yeah the person to blame for that is Cameron for resigning and not just taking us out. The speech made sense when he said it, but not triggering A50 immediately looks like it's hurting us and our allies that we trade with (ie us again) and creating pointless uncertainty and anger around the result. It'll be the 52% who feel most betrayed by the ultimate result too if we end up still in D:

    I wonder what the political landscape will be like with the country divided between UKIP, Neo-Conservatives, Socialist Labour Party, Recent Labour, Lib Dems and SNP? I'm gonna vote Recent Labour I think :3 they represent the city faction and control the post offices.
     
  2. Somerset Cider

    Somerset Cider Old Pony

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    Corbyn and socialist labour for me, representing the people comrade.
     
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  3. Recurrent Trotting

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    :D they also get a 50% bonus to production and the best theme music

    edit
    what scandinavia and the world think of Brexit :p
    [​IMG]
     
    #463 Recurrent Trotting, 3 July 2016
    Last edited: 3 July 2016
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  4. BT_Blueshift

    BT_Blueshift Lives for the night

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    Nigel Farage has stepped down as leader of UKIP.

    Isn't it strange how the two hardest campaigners (Boris and Nigel) don't want anything to do with the actual Brexit?
     
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  5. Irregular Apocalypse

    Irregular Apocalypse Follo teh oranj hoers ...

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    I'd not read too much into that - it's just Farage's annual resignation.
     
  6. Somerset Cider

    Somerset Cider Old Pony

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    It was for a whole two days last time, but he has said that he will be watching BREXIT like a hawk.
     
  7. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I was reflecting elsewhere earlier today on two things:

    1) It's been less than a fortnight since the referendum, which in historical terms is no time at all. Between now and 2050, say, it's just about certain that something will have happened that changes our society enormously and that hardly anyone saw coming. (I visited the East German border in spring 1989. Nobody there expected the Berlin Wall to fall within a year.) Not a single one of us has been 100% right about everything we've believed in our lives, and it's useful to remember that.

    I don't think Brexit will prove to be a success, and none of the current arguments convince me otherwise -- if they did, I wouldn't have voted Remain! And I'm sure Leavers feel the same thing in reverse. But I could be wrong. You could be wrong. Indeed, we both could be wrong in different ways.

    2) There's been way too much Twitter one-line-ing going on, from all sides. I know I've done it at times myself. In some ways, the referendum itself was the simple bit -- it was a straight Yes/No question. What happens from here on, in terms of how the UK leaves, is most certainly not a Yes/No question, and will probably involve a lot of tough negotiations and compromises. Things that can't be summed up in 140 characters.

    So I hope people (in general; not aiming this at people here) get off Twitter/Facebook for a bit and go and talk, sensibly, to those who were on the other side from themselves. If we can't be friends with people who don't share our political views, then we really are lost as a society.
     
  8. Somerset Cider

    Somerset Cider Old Pony

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    And now there is a legal challenge to the result in the High Court from a London Law firm representing a group of business men and academics.
     
  9. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Well, it doesn't really have much to do with what I said, so I'm not sure why you quoted me -- but I think that sort of thing was pretty much inevitable whichever way it went -- eg if Remain had won, we'd probably have seen someone go to court over the registration deadline extension. Pretty much every really major constitutional change ends up with someone or other bringing in lawyers.
     
  10. Discrete Set

    Discrete Set Everything is mathematics. No exception.

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    The stakes in politics are too high to hold back. Lie, cheat, manipulate, use any legal argument you can come up with - you have to use every dirty trick in the book, because your opponent will be doing no less.
     
  11. janglehooves

    janglehooves Proud to be an earth pony!

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    Personally I'd favour WTO rules over the EEA. The EEA might techinically satisfy the mandate of the referendum but sovereignty and immigration were two major drivers of the leave vote and the EEA option doesn't really address either. I also think that the EEA is a lazy option when we could get a much better deal by negotiation. The EU want a deal, they are ready to negotiate. One thing that has surprised me post-referendum is how measured the EU response has been. I thought they would have been a lot heavier on the hardline rhetoric at this stage and although there has been some, there have also been a lot of comments that suggest there is room for manouvre on their part. It would be a severe dereliction of duty for any British politician not to make the most of this opportunity. If it comes down to WTO versus a negotiated solution then the EU will negotiate as to do otherwise doesn't suit their interests either.
    The EEA option would certainly be a very hard sell to the 17.4 million who voted leave. The next Tory PM may think they can get away with selling out the ex-Labour heartlands but they need to remember that a lot of the Tory shires voted leave too...;)

    To be fair to the Nige, I don't think the Tories would have given UKIP a role anyway. That said Leadsom didn't rule him out so he may pop up in future if she ends up as PM. Failing that I hear there's a job going at Top Gear. :D I certainly think a peerage is in order. Viscount Farage of Brussels & Strasbourg has a nice ring to it...:D

    Is that an actual challenge? The way I heard it sounded more like the group of vested interest businessmen/academics had paid them to write a solicitor's letter. The argument was apparently that legislation requires legislation to overturn it. Given that invoking article 50 isn't a change of legislation, just an offical statement of intent I'd have said they were on pretty shakey ground with that one. I hope they got a no win no fee deal...:p
     
  12. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I suspect that's because Angela Merkel has made it pretty clear that she really dislikes Jean-Claude Juncker and at least partially blames him for the Leave vote. Plus Germany isn't on board with France's desire for "more Europe" and sees trade as much more important. I can't see any way she'll be happy with WTO, but some form of "EEA-lite" (like the Swiss?) is conceivable.

    Trying to look at this dispassionately, I think there's a big political opportunity for UKIP in 2020 whichever way the UK government goes. If it's EEA, they can say it's a sell-out and "not proper Brexit". If it's WTO, they can say it's a bad deal for British business. They need to choose the right leader, though: it needs to be someone less "Marmite" than Farage, otherwise they'll replay the 2015 GE and pile up votes but get very few MPs.
    I think their argument is that by invoking Article 50 and thus saying officially that yes, Brexit is really going to happen, the UK is making the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972 a certainty. I don't think they have much chance of winning, though.
     
  13. vaska00762

    vaska00762 R6 Siege fan

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    WTO rules however is not an option that the public would support, IMO, and EEA would probably be more inclusive of the overall opinion.
    And the WTO option would also be a very hard sell to the 48% of the voters who voted remain.
    Also, this is more an interesting precedent, because what if a PM invokes article 50? And what if the parliament at the time refuses to repeal the European Communities Act? You'd have a UK that the EU says isn't a member, but according to UK law, it still is an EU member. Quite a conundrum?
     
  14. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I think that can be filed under "things that could theoretically happen but won't". It's like asking what would happen if the Queen refused Royal Assent on an Act of Parliament -- in theory she could, but it would be the end of the monarchy if she did. Until and unless we ever get a written constitution, there will always be some of them.
     
  15. servirare

    servirare hmmmmm

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    The sovereignty debate is literally meaningless because we always had sovereignty. We chose to accept the EU regulations, but could always, as this referendum proves, choose to reject them. Just because we never chose to doesn't mean we couldn't. Now we're apparently choosing not to: if we didn't have sovereignty then that is not a choice we would have been able to make. Further, if we do a trade deal of any sort, we're just back to square one when it comes to agreeing to rules that are not in direct control of our government. If we say "we're going to trade however we see fit" then no one else is going to do a deal with you. If not then you accept rules that you don't have full control over and that is apparently a "loss of sovereignty" for a very strange definition of what sovereignty actually is.

    But when it comes to regulations, sure we can choose to have different regulations. The thing is though that anyone wanting to export to Europe is going to have to stick to the EU regs anyway, and if we want different regulations from the EU and US, we'll have to accept that compared to those two, we're a smaller market so we'll have fewer imports we can get, coming later and at a higher price, as and when people bother to make their products compliant with us.

    Seems unlikely we'll get a better deal than we could have had or have now. Cameron negotiated a better deal, which is now off the table. The EU people haven't been hardline except on a few points one of which is you don't get to pick and choose on the single market.

    That presupposes that there's an opportunity to be had. If it turns out that there's actually no course of actions from now on which can lead to anything as good as the current deal, then it's not dereliction of duty to not achieve it.

    Depends on the timescale and depends on which part of their interests. It's not in their interests to bend over backwards to give us a better deal because then everyone else will want one too. You have to weigh off the case of worse trade with us versus worse trade with everyone else from their point of view. We're quite a lot smaller than the rest of the EU combined, so given the choice of those two, it's very much in their interests to not do a good deal with us.

    Second, 45% of our exports go to the EU versus 14% of theirs to us. A reduction in trade is relatively much worse for us than for them. If they don't give us a deal then all they have to do is wait and we'll probably wind up re-joining later, but with full Schengen zone conditions and without the excessively high rebate we currently have. If they believe that's the case, then again, it's worth them taking a small hit for a few years to make things better in the future.

    I think we can see that they don't care about anything except the next stepping stone in their careers, so don't hold out hope of them doing the "right" thing for any definition of "right" other than "right for them".


    Academics do have a vested interest in staying in Europe, I supposed, because the academic sector will be hosed if we leave. I'm a former academic and still friends with many current ones. Feel free to ask if you want to know how.
     
  16. vaska00762

    vaska00762 R6 Siege fan

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    As many heads of government in the rest of the EU have said, some sort of deal with the UK will be in their interest, but it is their much more important interest to keep the EU going without the UK, whether or not a deal is done sooner or later. Some of the problems relate to whether or not certain deals can be done. EEA deals will be easier and simpler do do as there's very little to do. WTO is even simpler (just do nothing). I'm sure Canadian style CEFTA deals will be incredibly hard to do, however, as even now, the negotiations have taken 4 years, and there's still negotiations to go.
    I've heard this from the Provost in my university, and while it wasn't quite what I was there to hear (it was at a meeting to do with course closures, and the Provost spent 80% of the time on the referendum, this was back in May, BTW) I'm sure academics were very clear on why Remain was vital to them. I'm sure though that students were ignored once again though, since ERASMUS+ was hardly mentioned, and as someone about to go on one of those exchanges, I feel as if we have a population that has more concern in "that immigrant next door" than the good of society and humanity as a whole.
     
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  17. servirare

    servirare hmmmmm

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    The EEA deals will be very easy to complete: if we accept the rules (i.e. freedom of movement, and acceptance of all the relevant regulations) then they'll give it to us! That will actually solve just about every problem with leaving the EU. The difficulty comes if for some reason we don't want to do that...

    The WTO rules are simple from a trade position, but that leaves an awful lot of stuff not sorted out, like the status of people who have moved here, the status of ex-pats on the continent, the land borders with the EU, fishing rights (say what you want about territorial waters---the fish don't care and if you screw it up you'll get a crash of the fish stocks like the 1992 Atlantic North West crash) and so on. There's a lot more to negotiate than trade and all of those things will have to happen at once and they'll influence each other.

    Academia is heavily reliant on EU funding: successive governments have pretty much all cut funding and we receive a disproportionately large share of research funding from Europe compared to other countries. We're also the top country in the world in terms of research output per unit of money invested which is partly due to being able to attract some of the best talent from around the globe. This makes the money invested in academia go a long way. If we make ourselves unattractive to foreigners, then it'll make the little money invested go much less far. If we decide to expel foreigners then it'll be in complete disarray for decades.

    Academia is not all about students and certainly not all about undergraduate students. In fact quite a lot of it has nothing to do with them at all! Nonetheless, everything has a knock-on effect. Firstly, the 9k fees aren't actually enough to cover the cost of running any of the science or engineering courses. The shortfall comes from overheads charged to grants and people putting in lots of time off the books. Less research money means less overheads to fund teaching and fewer staff to donate "spare" time. As it ism many (most) research staff have some teaching duties. Fewer research staff also means each researcher needs to do more teaching. That has two effects. The first and more obvious one is that the teaching quality will decrease since you can't simply do more stuff without the quality slipping. The second one is that the research quality will start to slip. That will have a cascading effect which leads to even less research money and also, the teaching of the cutting edge state of the art won't be as good since the researchers won't be at the cutting edge any more.

    Yep.
     
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  18. Recurrent Trotting

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    more important Scandinavian commentary :3
    [​IMG]
     
  19. cool110

    cool110 ⏏⋈♻✇✐

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    Well, there's finally a CGP Grey video with some interesting odds of what will happen.
     
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