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General Election 2017

Discussion in 'In The News' started by Recurrent Trotting, 25 April 2017.

  1. Recurrent Trotting

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    So we have an election coming up. Is it just about Brexit our relationship with the EU or is it about other things too? If you're a Conservative voter just how many champagne glasses do you buy for the historic June 8th massacre? :p If you're not a Conservative voter then have you considered this tactical voting spreadsheet?

    Favourite election moment so far is Keir Starmer. Just in general really - I think he'll shine in his role as shadow EU secretary over the election.

    Least favourite moment is Corbyn being quizzed on pushing buttons or Trident as part of the Conservatives' understandable May vs Corb strategy. (The last thing this election is about for me is Prime Minister Corbyn.)

    Yay I get to start this thread

    Do you vote for...

    The Great and Powerful Theresa
    [​IMG]
    "A vote for my party is a vote for ME, the Great and Powerful Theresa, and not the Weak and Disorderly Corbyn!"

    The Trotsky party
    [​IMG]
    "Corbyn for Cute and Cuddly Communism."

    The Sad Yellow Europony Party

    [​IMG]
    "Oh... you really want to vote for...um...me?"

    Or the Europe is a Dragon Party
    [​IMG]
    "Rawr!"
     
    #1 Recurrent Trotting, 25 April 2017
    Last edited: 25 April 2017
  2. Irregular Apocalypse

    Irregular Apocalypse Follo teh oranj hoers ...

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    A quote from the late, great, George Carlin is appropriate here:

    “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”

    Look across the Atlantic for proof, if any were needed.

    (personally, I'm hoping for an increase in the number of independent candidates - my hopes aren't high, though)
     
  3. Oilyvalves

    Oilyvalves Railway Pony

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    At the moment, I don't know who I'll be voting for, if at all. Although it's likely I'll be guilt-tripped into voting like I was with the referendum.

    My constituency is a fairly safe Labour seat. A predominantly working-class area, and Margaret Beckett as MP; the longest ever serving female MP. So I have doubts that my vote would count for much.

    I don't like Theresa May, I don't have any confidence in Corbyn, and I'm not confident that a significant number of people will vote Lib Dem. What a great choice!
     
  4. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I don't intend to post all that much in here except in a moderating capacity if needed -- I do enough arguing about politics on Twitter. ;) For that reason, most of this post is about what I think will happen, rather than what I want to happen.

    But for the sake of stating a position... I don't know who I'll vote for this time, partly because I don't even know which candidates are standing in my constituency yet! The Lib Dems are probably in pole position, despite Mr Farron's iffy comments (well, lack of comments) on LGBT issues. I'd be open to voting for a good independent, though.

    I can't see any other outcome than a landslide Tory win in June, probably with a majority well over 100. I know strange things can happen in politics, but they'd have to be really strange to stop Theresa May still being PM after the election. The failure of the Lib Dems to gain much in the polls recently suggests that Brexit may be less of an election issue than some people think, and that May is going for the "safe pair of hands" campaign strategy. So far it looks like it's working for her.

    I think Labour is going to get absolutely smashed -- I could see them doing worse than their 1983 disaster. I do think Jeremy Corbyn has been treated unfairly in the media, but politics has never been fair -- and what did Labour think was going to happen? In this game, if you can't win on an uneven playing field then you can't win at all. And the blunt truth is that Corbyn appeals a good deal to many dedicated Labourites but hardly at all to middle England. Electoral maths means that if you don't appeal to middle England, you're sunk.

    The Lib Dems should gain a few seats, but I think talk of them getting back to the 50+ they had before the coalition years is fanciful. I think they'll be doing well if they get 20. The Greens ought to retain Brighton Pavilion and could come through in Bristol West, but that's the limit. I'd be staggered if they won more than two seats -- first past the post really is harsh on small parties.

    The SNP will do well once again and win an easy majority of Scottish seats, but not quite as well as they did last time round. Remarkably, the main reason for that may well be a resurgence in Conservative support. I'd put my house on the Tories winning more seats than Labour north of the border, something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

    One final comment here: "the polls are wrong" is delusional when the gap is 20+ points. You could add the pollsters' errors in 1970, 1992 and 2015 and they still wouldn't be enough to close the gap. Labour are miles behind. Unless something remarkable happens, that's where they'll stay.
     
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  5. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    They're a dead cert to win unless there's any truth to the idea that Brexiters didn't really want it after all (I think there's some of this, but not a lot) and even then they'd have to feel strongly enough about it to vote tactically and end up with either another coalition or Corbyn, who is generally hated (I like him, but not many do - he got to where he is via a very dedicated internet fandom paying £3 to become members and thrust him to leadership).

    Unfortunately (IMO, as I really trust the Tories the least when it comes to having the best interests of myself (not a high flyer) and the people I care about at heart) this will give them such a strong lead and crush the opposition so comprehensively that we probably won't see the back of them for 10, or maybe 15 years.
     
  6. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    Yeah... just feeling more than a little bit burnt out from politics over the last two years and I'm sure I can't be the only one... Maybe I'll sit this one out, but we'll see what happens.
     
  7. Recurrent Trotting

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    Depends which Labour you ask I think. Momentum thinks that they will continue their winning streak of electing Corbyn as leader of the Labour party when he is once again returned as leader of the Labour party on June 8th.

    The Parliamentary Labour Party on the other hand seem think that the voters will elect Theresa May as Prime Minister of the country, that she will continue to be leader of her party, and that many of them will also no longer be MPs.

    :p
     
  8. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    Understandable.

    But, I think, for anyone who wants to see the back of the Tories or have a softer Brexit (or possibly even reverse it) etc, if indeed those things are the case - get out and vote! It's extremely unlikely the way things look right now sure, but it's POSSIBLE to swing things if there's enough energy in doing so. The younger age range turnout has been terrible lately, from what I saw, so more young people getting to the polling booths (or even doing it by post!) could really make a difference. The older people seem to trend - certainly not all, but a trend - towards the Conservative and Brexit camps, and apathy from the young (who normally tend more towards the left and remain) can very easily be enough to let them tip the balance. Or in this case (they tipped it a while ago), keep it going deeper.

    That's all assuming it's what people want. If May having a stronger mandate, being able to shake off the "unelected" label and having another 5 years is what people want or are happy to allow, I respect that.
     
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  9. vaska00762

    vaska00762 R6 Siege fan

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    I was OP for the 2015 election thread, and that got 703 replies, though this forum was more active back then. I don't think anyone thought that the results of that election would cause so much change.

    I think this election will be interesting in two contexts. First of all, after a snap election in Northern Ireland were Unionism lost a majority in the Assembly. As such the results of this General Election to see how Sinn Féin do in some seats as well as how the Unionst parties deal with a reality where they may loose out even more. As no devolved government has returned since, it'll either go to another snap election here or to direct rule.

    The election will be also interesting UK-wide. I don't want to sound like a pessimist, but this election will mostly be my last hope for the UK. Currently living in Germany for university and with a degree which will mostly be focussed on German speaking countries when I graduate, the decision which will be made by England will be whether or not single market and customs union policy is what they're after. Labour has said about 4 different things about the Single Market and the Customs Union, so I have no idea about their policy. But Theresa May has made it clear that isolationism is what she wants, and that will certainly be something that will make a future inside the UK for me harder.

    I have Irish citizenship as well as British citizenship so emigrating won't be an issue, but I do fear what will be the result of the hardest or right wing Brexits to the UK, and to Northern Ireland. No one knows what will happen to the Border, and I've heard more from Tories who want to get rid of Northern Ireland than keep it. Their precious border seemingly is more important to them than people in the border areas.
     
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  10. Recurrent Trotting

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    that's what is enthusing me for this election - voting not right-Tory. I don't care which party is in - including Conservative - if my MP is not right-Tory and is prepared to deliver Theresa a few Commons defeats on some of her more right-wing Tory stuff then they're good. If the reason for the election is that Theresa has had to tone down these policies a bit (as most think) then the more opposition the better. Why don't I like right-Tory? Well mainly because I think their UKIP appealing policies have already (with Brexit) and will in future (repeal of HRA etc) hurt us as a society as they hark back to Britain's parochial past.
     
    #10 Recurrent Trotting, 26 April 2017
    Last edited: 26 April 2017
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  11. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    You see the problem I have isn't specifically with May being unelected, prime ministers are not directly elected and that's how the system works, it's the fact that the Tories have a majority in parliament with only 36.9% of the popular vote in the last election - that's where the weak mandate comes from and what I think people should be focusing on but people seem to have forgotten about that. Personally I want to see the back of the Tories presumably as much as the majority of the electorate did in 2015 - but much more than that I want to see people fairly represented. I signed the petition for proportional representation after the election (as huge numbers did) and the government brushed it off by claiming that we already had a referendum on PR in 2011 (which we didn't). It's hard to be enthusiastic when the Tories could still win a majority even with a minority of votes. It's not apathy for me, more that I feel that I've really run out of energy for it. It's important to stay positive though and realise that not everything good/bad comes from politics.
     
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  12. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Labour got a considerably larger majority in 2005 with 35.2% of the vote. I'm not saying it's a good thing (like you, I'm in favour of PR) but the winning party's share in 2015 is broadly in line with previous elections, which explains why most voters don't find it particularly remarkable.
     
  13. Irregular Apocalypse

    Irregular Apocalypse Follo teh oranj hoers ...

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    See my George Carlin quote, above ...

    (cynical? Me? You betcha ... I grew up during the Thatcher years)
     
  14. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    It's just as bad, really. Really Tories should be objecting to this too, even though it worked to their favour this time, especially as you point out it works both ways but also on the principle of democracy. Another interesting statistic is that in 2015 Labour gained votes (both absolute and percentage) but lost seats. I am aware of drawbacks to PR as well, but I think we could do better than what we have.

    The thing is I prefer not to be cynical since it's bad for my sanity! I'm sure you won't find much disagreement from me when talking about the Thatcher years... People don't vote to be evil, I believe, they have different experiences and perspectives. There are Tory voters who I know who truly believe that they believe in what's best for the country, just as much as I think I know what's best, so I can't hate them for that.

    Anyway, I think I said something about not getting involved in this. ;)
     
  15. CuldeeFell

    CuldeeFell Ponies Rock

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    It's funny, last time when the result was genuinely unknowable beforehand with most commentators and polls predicting a hung parliament I was on tenterhooks listening to the news and the campaigns to try and see which way the election was going. This time with the Conservatives' majority all but assured it's harder to muster up enthusiasm.

    Jeremy Corbyn tried and he failed. The interesting thing now is what will happen in the Labour leadership contest later this year, which will take place after Labour has lost a large contingent of MPs. It's anyone's guess as to what Labour will look like in 2022. If you'd asked me three years ago, two years ago and one year ago to predict the state of British politics in April 2017 I'd have given you three different answers, failing to predict, in order, the rise of the SNP post 2014, the election of Corbyn in 2015 and the vote for Brexit in 2016. So who the Labour leader will be at the end of 2017 I've no idea. And what sort of a campaign they (or perhaps their successor) will be fighting in 2021 or '22, I've got equally no idea.

    Not that any of us would know anything about being a part of a very dedicated internet fandom that flies in the face of popular opinion now would we? ;)
     
  16. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Fun(?) electoral fact of the day: there are quite strict rules about rosette-wearing at polling stations. The only people allowed to do this at all are candidates or election agents (tellers). The rosette cannot bear a slogan or the candidate's name, just the name and logo of the party. (Source: Electoral Commission guidance.)
     
  17. Deltalizer

    Deltalizer New Pony

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    Unfortunately, I'm going to be missing the voting age by almost exactly 1 year, haha, an early election hasn't helped me in the slightest :p But as for my opinion on things, I think it's going to be a landslide win for the Tories, successfully cementing May in for another 5 years of pure joy... It does however feel like tides are changing and people are generally just getting sick of politics at the moment though, especially in the USA. Maybe the next election will be an entirely different situation. I can hope ;)
     
  18. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    I remember 1997 well (Tories to New Labour). HUGE waves of optimism. Good times!
    We might see a repeat in a decade
     
  19. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I know that feeling of just missing out on an election -- I just missed being eligible in 1992. At least that time I knew long in advance I wouldn't be able to vote, though, as that Parliament had gone the full five years.
    I'm not sure, actually. As someone who thinks it's possible to be too cynical about politics (sceptical is a different matter) I've actually been mildly encouraged recently. For example, the turnout at GE2001 was a post-war low of 59%. But since then GE turnouts have risen every time, to 61%, 65% and 66%. (Source) We've also had a number of elections/referendums -- Scotland, Brexit and now this GE -- where nobody can claim it doesn't make any difference who wins. Mind you, the two referendums were close, and this GE doesn't look like being, so that might push the turnout down again. We'll see.
     
  20. Aldersgate

    Aldersgate Honorary Pony

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    When I was first eligible to vote (2001, which now seems an eternity ago!) I remember speaking to my friend's mum, who was Uruguayan. She remembered being in exaclty the same situation you were, and being incredibly jealous of her slightly older cousins. "And then," she said with a grin, "By the time I was old enough to vote they'd abolished elections and become a dictatorship!" It really brought home to me how lucky we are, for all the cynicism I feel about the political process at the moment.
     
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