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General Election 2017

Discussion in 'In The News' started by abrony-mouse, 25 April 2017.

  1. CuldeeFell

    CuldeeFell Ponies Rock

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    One of my eternal regrets will always be that I never voted in an EU election. The only one I was ever eligible for was the 2014 election and to my shame I was politically ignorant enough that I didn't realise it was happening until after it had happened. And there weren't any more after that for me to vote in.

    Going off topic (slightly) but I'll be making sure to vote in the County Council elections we've got in my area on Thursday. I don't want to have a vote and not use it.
     
  2. Eunos the Fool

    Eunos the Fool Proud Hater of Sparity

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    Can we hurry up and get this election over with?

    I'm sick and tired of consistent posts about it on my Facebook wall.

    In Fact I'm sick and tired of Politics as a whole.
     
    Cloudane likes this.
  3. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Then going to a thread titled "General Election 2017" is probably not the best option...

    On topic, I wonder what (if any) difference tonight's local election results will make to the general election next month. A lot of councils haven't counted yet, but enough have to see the general patterns. Con doing very well, Lab doing badly, Lib Dems a bit disappointing and UKIP falling apart. I'm sure the Tories would be delighted at something similar in June.
     
  4. CuldeeFell

    CuldeeFell Ponies Rock

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    Labour seem to be going up in the polls based on the last few over the weekend:

    [​IMG]

    Obviously nowhere near enough to have the Conservatives shaking in their boots, but enough polls showing a big enough uptick that it looks real rather than a statistical fluke. A good response to the leaked draft manifesto perhaps? The BBC have written some interesting words about it here. If the polls are accurate (big if) it suggests a joint Conservative/ Labour share of close to 80%, the highest it's been since 1992. UKIP and the Lib Dems (and to a lesser extent the Greens) seem to be the losers here. Perhaps we could be seeing something of a return to two party politics...?
     
    Cloudane likes this.
  5. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse (not) Flawless

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    good news-ish - wish the Conservative vote hadn't also spiked upwards, but hopefully there will be a bit of opposition to the Tory right (regardless of whoever is leading the labour party)

    personally don't care about Labour's manifesto - whenever I hear them saying "under a Labour government" it just sounds like a silly fantasy, since the FPTP system is going to keep them out for the foreseeable future, but the more MPs they can not lose the better
     
  6. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I think the graph that @CuldeeFell posted suggests a few reasons why Labour's vote has inched up:

    1. UKIP are falling apart. With Brexit now happening, they don't really have a reason to exist any more. Although most of their voters are likely to go to the Tories, not all will. Some of the Kippers' support has come from traditional working-class Labour places -- as many of those (albeit not all) voted heavily Leave.

    2. The Liberal Democrats have been doing very poorly. Even allowing for their low base from last time, I expected them to be running at at least 15% in the polls by now -- especially given they got 18% in the local elections. So there's likely to be less of a split in the anti-Tory vote than initially expected.

    3. Personal opinion, but I think Jeremy Corbyn himself has come across fairly well so far. Not all his spokespeople have managed it, but the man himself hasn't performed too badly. This will have reassured at least some Labourites who like Corbyn's policies but have worried that he's ineffective as a leader.

    The Tories are clearly still going to win, and probably by a landslide. Electoral Calculus currently predicts an overall majority of 170, which would be fairly similar to the 179 Labour achieved in 1997. But I don't think we're heading for the sort of earthquake they had in Canada (which also uses FPTP) in 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives fell from 156 seats to two!
     
    Aldersgate and CuldeeFell like this.
  7. Aldersgate

    Aldersgate Honorary Pony

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    One of the more concerning things I read (from my own political POV anyway, appreciating not all will share it!) is the way that UKIP is operating at present. There were a fairly substantial number of marginal seats for Labour/Lib Dems or with incumbent Hard Brexit Tories where they've withdrawn their candidates. If their voters switch to the Conservatives, this would have a much greater impact that the fairly minimal "progressive alliance" stuff that is swirling around at the moment in some of the marginals. Who knows what this will mean when it comes to final numbers, but a 170ish majority sounds about right at the minute.
     
  8. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse (not) Flawless

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    soo the polls are showing that having some opposition to Theresa is fairly popular, with one poll even claiming a hung parliament :D (ok that is probably a crazy poll)

    can't wait for the GE to give us another quiet tory tidal wave to destroy my hopes :(
     
  9. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    Interesting times. May seeming like she's actively trying to destroy her chances has had little effect until recently...
    A hung parliament doesn't seem too far fetched at this point. Not going to get my hopes up of them losing though - probably just means another Tory+??? coalition

    Nice to see that the events in Manchester seemingly had no impact - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/general-election-2017-polls-odds-tracker-latest/
    I was expecting a surge in the Tory and UKIP polls out of fear and wanting a hard Brexit to keep foreigners out etc - but nothing of the sort is visible there.
     
    #29 Cloudane, 2 June 2017
    Last edited: 2 June 2017
    abrony-mouse and Mane25 like this.
  10. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    I hear the Guardian have backed Labour now, not that it'll probably make much difference but one in particular I never saw coming given their general anti-Corbyn tone in the last couple of years. I've been out of the country for the last week or so, so I feel rather strangely out of touch with the overall mood about the election (I'll be back just in time to vote)... but it's interesting how things seem to be changing, even if Labour don't win it could still be closer than we thought.
     
  11. Wonderbolt

    Wonderbolt Honorary Pony

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    More labour support means May could change her game plan to claw back votes, I could see her going for even more slightly leftish leaning policies (rail fare caps? More powers over public transport for Metro mayors?).
     
  12. Oilyvalves

    Oilyvalves Railway Pony

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    After this evening's Question Time special, I'm probably less sure who to vote for than beforehand. Also it succeeded in tiring me out; I'm not going to get anything productive done this evening. I'll be glad when the election is over by this time next week.

    I think I'll go and watch some MLP or Brambly Hedge to take my mind off things.
     
  13. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    As usual, this post is avoiding too much in the way of my personal preferences...

    I think the Labour surge is genuine, and that Jeremy Corbyn has generally outperformed expectations while Theresa May has had a poor campaign. For example, May's argument that it's terrible to risk PM Corbyn only invites the answer "Well, nobody forced you to call this election!" A few months ago, I thought that Corbyn would be a disastrous campaigner. I was wrong on that.

    However, I don't think this will translate into PM Corbyn next week, for these reasons:

    1) The Tories seem to be hanging on to their voters (low 40s in almost all polls) while Labour have increased theirs by squeezing the other non-Tory parties -- Lib Dems, Greens etc hard, yet have still only reached 40% in one poll and have generally been mid-high 30s. If the Tory share dipped into the mid-30s, that would change everything. But so far at least, there's little sign.

    2) Labour's most enthusiastic supporters are young people, who for the last few elections have been much the least likely actually to vote. The Tories' most reliable supporters are pensioners, who are consistently the most likely to vote. (And the most anti-EU -- it was at least partly pensioners who won that referendum for Leave.)

    3) I think Labour's extra support will be disproportionately concentrated in cities and university seats. Most of these are already Labour. To win the election, they need more votes in places that are currently marginal Conservative constituencies, and that's a harder slog.

    Barring some utterly unexpected event, I no longer expect the Tories to end up with a majority of 170 as I predicted last month. However, I still think it's likely that they'll significantly increase it from the 12 they managed in 2015.
     
    janglehooves likes this.
  14. sten whik

    sten whik Space

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    After reading the main manifestos I dislike all the parties even more...
    May wants to be a lazy Emperor Palpatine.
    Labour will be SJW land.
    Lib Dems undo Brexit.
    Green party is the same as Lib Dems but with a lot less thought put into it and with added defunding nuclear power for no reason.
    UKIP wants to overdo Brexit.

    Will give credit where it's due though...
    The best written of the manifestos are Labour and UKIP. Each give their reasoning behind their policies and mention specific industries and organisations making them seem well thought out (apart from the "Equality" section of Labour's manifesto).
    Lib Dems want to undo the Snooper's Charter making them the only party that appears to not want to infringe on our privacy rights.
    All of the parties recognise that there is a problem with housing and are offering various support.
     
    janglehooves likes this.
  15. Kemaiku

    Kemaiku Honorary Pony

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    *Using SJW as a derogatory*

    Wow...welcome to 2014 and right winger land all in one.

    Maybe some people are sick of nothing but facists winning these days. America, Bulgaria, Hungary, Russia, North Korea, Ireland etc
     
    Nsxile likes this.
  16. janglehooves

    janglehooves Proud to be an earth pony!

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    The outcome I'm hoping for is that the Tories win with enough of a majority to make the Brexit negotiations workable but not enough to free the untrustworthy May from reliance on her eurosceptic back bench. The way things are looking I'm hopeful we might get that result. I would be voting UKIP but they're not running in my constituency and I can't bring myself to vote for the incumbent Tory (he'll win anyway as it's a very safe seat). I will go to the polling station but I think I'll vote for Princess Celestia - I feel she needs a democratic mandate...:)
    I'm not sure they "win" as such in Russia and North Korea...more continue in power... And the rest ain't fascists. :)
     
    Wonderbolt likes this.
  17. sten whik

    sten whik Space

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    Because I'm not generally left wing at all. Nope. No nationalised services wanted here. Am not at all conflicted by all the amazing things in Labour's manifesto. :rolleyes::p
     
  18. Wonderbolt

    Wonderbolt Honorary Pony

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    If Parties just went for a more economic left standpoint, but a right social standpoint I think they would be successful I think this is what Corbyn has failed to grasp, if he went for this stance he would be more successful I think.
    Over the last few years since 1997 onward we have had governments that have been economic right and socialy left.
     
  19. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    I've wrangled with the term "SJW" between being a part of it and denouncing it in the form of Zarna Joshi (the one who was yelling about "Hugh Mungus") and those silencing professors in Canada and the US. All I really got out of it was the conclusion that it's an unhelpful acronym - everyone has a personal definition of it, whether it's extremes like that, or someone who doesn't follow their hard-right racism. So at this point I think I'd rather just not use it.
     
    Mane25 likes this.
  20. Nytheris

    Nytheris Honorary Pony

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    Though I've spent some time recently trying to educate myself, I'm not that knowledgeable about politics, so I really don't know what to think and I probably have a completely wrong understanding of things. Still, I skimmed through the manifestos (college assignments and exams kind of take priority for now) and found myself leaning towards Lib Dems, despite not agreeing that much with their stance on brexit.
     

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