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General Election 2017

Discussion in 'In The News' started by Recurrent Trotting, 25 April 2017.

  1. Irregular Apocalypse

    Irregular Apocalypse Follo teh oranj hoers ...

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    My money would be on Vince Cable.

    As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has near as dammit admitted that she screwed up with the constant mentions of a second independence referendum. Well, as close to an admission as you're liable to get from a politician. Certain people in London would do well to follow her lead.
     
  2. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I could certainly see Cable as a caretaker leader, but he's 74 now and I'm not sure he'd want to stay on until the next election. Though that may happen in about three months. :p Lamb stood for the leadership against Farron, is very popular in his constituency (many people had that a nailed-on Tory gain, but he held it) and is generally liked across the political spectrum for his work on mental health. Or they could try a new generation, someone like Jo Swinson I suppose.
     
  3. Aldersgate

    Aldersgate Honorary Pony

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    I'm not sure Farron will go. He ran a disappointing campaign in some ways (not being able to capitalise on Remain feeling; the car-crash Andrew Neil interview), but impressed in others (managed to gain seats despite a big gravitation towards the two parties across the board; was effective in the debate). Particularly in a context in which another election might be on the horizon, I doubt the LDs would want to bring about internal chaos by turning on him, although I agree that Lamb would be a good choice.
     
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  4. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    You may well be right, and fair point on the LDs' unexpected (to many) seat gain. And I agree election timing may play a big part in any calculations. But my goodness he tied himself in knots with the personal morality questions early in the campaign. He'll be asked them in every interview he gets from now on, and he needs to handle them far better.

    As usual in this thread, mostly refraining from giving personal views. I think I agree with bits and disagree with other bits of just about every poster's opinions! :p
     
  5. janglehooves

    janglehooves Proud to be an earth pony!

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    I do believe I owe the exit poll an apology...:D It's certainly a surprise result, though with the benefit of hindsight you could kind of see it coming with May's strategy. Trying to make the election a personality contest when she didn't really have one was not the best idea (and I'll give Corbyn due credit here as he came over a lot better than expected). Likewise, alienating her core older vote with the so-called dementia tax was a bizarre decision. My personal view is that May should go but if that means further delays to the brexit negotiations I will grudgingly accept her on the basis that she will be treading on eggshells from now on.
    I'm not particularly surprised that the UKIP vote collapsed, what did surprise me is how much went to Labour. Again, with hindsight, this makes sense. I think the Tories have picked up the more hardline eurosceptic UKIP vote while Labour, with Corbyn's fairly radical manifesto have picked up the protest element. In a way this is rather encouraging as it shows a similar spirit in the electorate as the referendum vote. Corbyn's manifesto, unrealistic as it is, is not the standard bland centre left fayre that we're used to. Even allowing for some heavy plugging by TV media, it takes some going to get people to vote for something different. Corbyn is now in the "interesting" position of having to balance the views of his predominantly remain Momentum types and the returning working class leave voting demographic if he wants to progress further.
    As for brexit, in my opinion, it's not an ideal result but it's not a disaster either. The DUP are said to want a "soft" brexit but as far as I've seen that mostly extends to not wanting border restrictions between Northern Ireland and the Republic (which no-one else wants either). I've heard other DUP MPs in the past who have sounded as hardline as the most eurosceptic Tory backbenchers so it might be that the DUP that keeps May honest. Time will tell but I don't think I'll be emigrating just yet...:p
     
  6. Wonderbolt

    Wonderbolt Honorary Pony

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    I think that UKIP was always a more natural fit for ex labour voters, people often make the mistake that Labour voters are socialy liberal when this is far from the case, certainly in labour heartlands in the North, Midland and Wales, areas which are the most socially conservative in the country.
     
  7. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Kensington has finally declared: a Labour gain, with a majority of 20. That's a very good win for Labour, though don't make the mistake of thinking it's as stunning as it would have been in the old Kensington & Chelsea seat, as they're quite different. All this means that the final totals are, with changes since the 2015 GE:

    Con 318 (-13)
    Lab 262 (+30)
    SNP 35 (-21)
    Lib Dem 12 (+4)
    DUP 10 (+2)
    Sinn Fein 7 (+3)
    Plaid 4 (+1)
    Green 1 (nc)
    Ind 1 (nc)
    SDLP 0 (-3)
    UUP 0 (-2)
    UKIP 0 (-1)

    I think the Speaker is counted as a Tory here by convention, but he'll be balanced out by Labour deputies so it doesn't make much difference. The Ind is Lady Sylvia Hermon in North Down, who used to be UUP but resigned in 2010 when they affiliated with the Tories.

    Fair point. A lot of traditional Labour voters are economically left and socially right, to put it crudely -- and UKIP are/were as well. If you read their manifesto, bits of the economic stuff could have been written by Jeremy Corbyn. I also think the general perception that Corbyn wants Brexit, plus the way he insisted his MPs vote for Article 50, helped Labour with those voters.
     
  8. Wonderbolt

    Wonderbolt Honorary Pony

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    Indeed, him being a foil to the Blairite labour payed dividends in the end.
    In many way that faction of labour is a big loser here as they would have been keen to oust Corbyn if things had been bad.
     
  9. Robshi

    Robshi Young Dragon

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    I was a little surprised the Conservatives didn't lose more with such a disastrous campaign. I'm really stumped as to why people are still voting for them in large numbers. I guess Labour did do incredibly well given their position at the start of the election, and I am happy to see Corbyn getting supported by UK voters. I've really warmed up to him during his campaign and I am hopeful he may be elected in a future election.

    The prospect of a Conservative and DUP Coalition is a rather terrifying one after seeing what the DUP stand for. It's also ironic that Theresa May was urging voters to vote for her to stop a Coalition of Chaos, only to then get one involving her party.

    I am glad that UKIP have been snuffed out for now, hopefully for good. I'm also happy the Scots have clearly refused IndyRef 2 by voting the SNP out of several seats. Hopefully the "once in a lifetime" vote will prove to be so. It was nice to see the Lib Dems win a couple more seats too.
     
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  10. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    I think Labour will be most successful in the near future if it dumps the Blairite/Corbynista factionalism. The ultimate test of a party's stance is a general election and it's clear Corbyn proved a lot of people wrong. If they now accept that, form a broadly-based front bench and concentrate on holding the government to account, they'll be well set up for the next election. After all, their job's only half-done -- another 60+ gains are needed for an overall majority and probably 25-30 to be largest party.
    I do wonder whether he'll stay as leader if this government limps on the full five years. He'd be 73 by then, and I've never got the impression that Corbyn's burning ambition is to be PM. He wants to change society first and foremost, and if he feels a different leader with a similar vision can do that more effectively, I think he'd be happy to pass on the baton. Can't think of anyone right now, but maybe someone will emerge from the new crop of Labour MPs. If Corbyn wants to stay, nobody's really going to object after last night. I'm just not sure living in No. 10 is his top priority.

    Edit: aaaand I think that's me done with this thread, for the most part. I'll keep watching it for mod reasons anyway, and may post occasionally, but I want to get back to mostly posting about Pony. :)
     
    #90 Loganberry, 10 June 2017
    Last edited: 10 June 2017
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  11. Wonderbolt

    Wonderbolt Honorary Pony

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    DUP should be quite interesting. Bringing NI politics into GB politics.
     
  12. Recurrent Trotting

    Recurrent Trotting Do you feel the same?

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    probably because they realise that not everything is about campaigns - if the country could be run on campaigns then Nigel Farage would be the supreme leader. Still that campaign though :D such foal
    yeah this is Corbyn's opportunity to show how great of a leader he is, and his ability to control the party! :p

    anyway me too. I hope the Parliamentary Conservative and Labour parties, who both contain many good people despite the trolls, will ignore the weak leadership and get together to legislate in the interests of the country for once. Tories are already coming out and talking about soft Brexit happily on TV :D the light at the end of this tunnel better not be a friggin train though. I'm not sure my hopes can survive another dashing.
     
  13. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    I'm always surprised by that, not just from the campaign but from the last 7 years of disasters. I can only imagine that's where the UKIP voters have gone, with all the Conservatives' hard-brexit talk that must've been their plan.

    I don't know how much impact the DUP can really have with 10 seats - especially when you consider how little impact the Lib-Dems had with 57. The Tories are only 9 seats off a majority as it is, I can see the DUP's involvement as being more of a formality to get them in, I'm not sure what they can demand. Maybe they'll push them towards a softer brexit, at least push the issue with the Irish border up the agenda, and an alliance could help damage the Tories' reputation further. Is that too optimistic? I've got to admit my knowledge of NI politics is somewhat lacking.

    Yes, I was worried that the Scots would jump at the chance to abandon us after the brexit vote - pleasantly surprised to find that's not the case.

    Main concern is if this trend can keep momentum - I have little doubt certain parts of the media will do all they can to slam on the brakes.
     
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  14. Recurrent Trotting

    Recurrent Trotting Do you feel the same?

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    well the papers were divided on exiting the EU at least so hopefully they won't be too nasty about softening that. In terms of harping on at Corbyn, the focus will now be on the Brexit negotiations and what remains of Tory policy after the hammering. What I'm worried about with the media is them whipping up this Tory leadership thing - leave the Tory party alone media D: it's done something right for once. Now let the soft coalition get to work... unless it doesn't, then unleash soft hell.

    edit

    soft momentum growing :D
     
    #94 Recurrent Trotting, 10 June 2017
    Last edited: 11 June 2017
  15. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    Will say this, it paid for about 50% of my Switch :D

    Glad I did't plonk an early bet on a strong Tory majority which my political pessimism was telling me to do, as the later weeks of the campaign made the swing towards a likely hung parliament painfully obvious (I'm a Labour supporter, and to me the prospect of them actually winning was a little too optimistic) and a well timed bet played the bookies quite nicely. Again!

    Wouldn't read too much into the apparent support for Labour - it seemed really like the Tory campaign was one of actually trying to lose, as if May had just decided "nope this Brexit stuff is impossible to be anything but a train wreck, we'll let Labour be the fall guy". Look at things they put forward like taking the houses of the elderly when they go into social care (as pretty much anyone with a house nowadays has at least 100k in assets because that's just how much they've bloated to) - alienating their own traditional voting base and further screwing over millennials who along with not being able to afford houses would also be a lot less likely to ever inherit anything either. Bleak enough to almost make Logan's Run seem like a good idea, just kill us all off at 30 before we become a burden on society! There seemed to be one thing after another like this that said "don't vote for us, we're nasty!" and people went for any alternative possible.

    However if somehow the Tories do cling on for the next 5 years or at least long enough to drag us through the inevitable shambles of Brexit, I think it continues to be a poisoned chalice that will really boost support for Labour if an election is called shortly after.

    Meanwhile the small handful of Tory supporters I have on my Facebook (I may not agree but don't throw friendships away over it) are super mad about the narrative that "the Conservatives lost even though they won, and Labour won even though they lost", I can't imagine how annoyed they'd be if May fails to form a government and some kind of Labour rainbow coalition succeeds - there'd be riots :p (Not quite as mad as many would be if Brexit was reversed, though)
     
  16. Silver Broom

    Silver Broom Tireless Traveller

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    While this might not have been so obvious in England, the Scottish Labour and Conservative campaigns were honed almost exclusively on being anti-independence, and I would argue that they were mentioning an independence referendum far more often than the SNP. This was also true in the local council elections the month before (and this is hardly a 'local' issue), but in these the SNP avoided mentioning it at all.

    This was the first time I voted SNP in a Westminster election, primarily because of their opposition to a hard Brexit. I also don't think an indyref at the end of the Brexit process is unreasonable - particularly if the latter takes a very severe form, with respect to my friends south of the border I want an escape route!
    Arguably Sturgeon did jump the gun with the formal referendum demand though, may have been more prudent to wait and see what public appetite was like some time into the Brexit negotiations.
    I am pleased with the overall GE result though - the Tories losing their majority gives me some hope that a less extreme approach will be taken, not just with Brexit but with some of their other proposals such as surveillance powers and ECHR withdrawal.

    For the most part the swing of the vote in Scotland was from the SNP to the Conservatives, enough such that it seems likely many who voted SNP in 2015 voted Conservative this time (i.e. not just a difference in demographic turnout). If now is too soon for an indyref then why did they vote SNP last time? This hasn't been touched upon much by the press, but I suspect it may have been driven partly by the Eurosceptic vote (particularly in north-east Scotland), where many people may previously have seen independence as the way to get out of the EU, a premise which no longer holds.
     

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