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Initial Brexit deal

Discussion in 'In The News' started by abrony-mouse, 8 December 2017.

  1. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse Light

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    One more step towards not being EU citizens. Not much changing for us in future it seems. At least some of the uncertainty might go away? Although all depends on what the future deal is still... Not sure what to think about this really. Looks like our noble striving for sovereignty might be more interesting on paper than in reality though. The EU was always a remarkably dull, glacially slow, sort of a subject (and that's coming from a EU fan :p ).
     
    #1 abrony-mouse, 8 December 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: 8 December 2017
  2. GhostlyJunkbot

    GhostlyJunkbot Gibbering Incoherent Rubbish

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    Well, so far, so not good.

    Everything in this forsaken country has been going south ever since Brexit (which, BTW, did NOT get a unanimous voting quota) became a thing. The value of the pound has been decreasing, housing affordability is non-existent (unless you're filthy, stinking rich AND already own property), unemployment is at an all-time high, and realistic job opportunities are at an all-time low, made worse by the fact that there are people with jobs who can't even afford to EAT! (Or even to cover their rent and/or utility bills.)

    Suffice to say, if things keep going the way they are (and as long as that witch heading Parliament is still in office), I fear things will probably only continue to get worse after Brexit.
     
  3. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse Light

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    Open Britain has a list of seven promises broken by the transition agreement
    Overview

    Since the referendum, the Government have made at least seven major promises about the transition period. Today’s draft agreement with the EU shows these promises have all now been broken, and that all transition does is move us from being a rule maker to a rule taker.

    The seven promises that were made were:

    1. A transition period will be about ‘implementing’ the future relationship, not negotiating it
    2. The UK will not pay money to the EU after March 2019
    3. The UK will not have to abide by EU rules during transition
    4. The UK will ‘take back control’ of fisheries policy
    5. Free movement will end in March 2019
    6. The UK will have new trade deals ready to come into force on 29 March 2019
    7. The implementation period would last for two years and should not be time limited

    Seven Promises vs Reality


    1. ‘Implementing’ the deal, not standing still


    Promise: A transition period will be about ‘implementing’ the future relationship, not negotiating it

    “The point of the implementation period is to put in place the practical changes necessary to move to the future partnership and, in order to have that, you need to know what that future partnership is going to be.”
    Theresa May, House of Commons, 23 October 2017
    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...sition-period-final-eu-trade-deal-theresa-may

    "I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement negotiation concluded in the period."
    David Davis, Evidence to Lords EU Committee, 18 January 2017
    http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...crutiny-of-brexit-negotiations/oral/69311.pdf


    Reality:
    Today’s agreement shows the bulk of the future relationship will be negotiated after we have left the EU. David Davis said at today’s press conference that the transition will be “the platform upon which we build the new relationship.” Since the Government clearly needs more time to negotiate the future relationship, it should extend Article 50.



    2. Payments to the EU

    Promise: The UK will not pay money to the EU after March 2019

    "And because we will no longer be members of the single market, we will not be required to contribute huge sums to the EU budget.”
    Theresa May, Lancaster House speech, 17 January 2017
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

    “We’re not going to be paying in after we come out.”
    Boris Johnson, 18 March 2018
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/18031803.pdf

    “We will not be paying for market access.”

    No 10 spokesman, 11 January 2018
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...KBN1F0256?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner


    Reality:
    The Government has conceded the UK will have to pay a divorce bill of around £40bn, with payments continuing until 2064. And the Prime Minister now says the UK should make “an appropriate financial contribution” for participation in a range of EU agencies.

    "For the years 2019 and 2020, in accordance with Part Four, the United Kingdom shall contribute to and participate in the implementation of the Union budgets."

    Article 128, page 75

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...91366/20180319_DRAFT_WITHDRAWAL_AGREEMENT.pdf



    3. The role of the ECJ

    Promise: The UK will not have to abide by EU rules during transition.

    "I mean firstly in 2019 we will leave. We’ll come out from under the – the jurisdiction and the law-making of the European Union."
    David Davis, BBC Andrew Marr Show, 24 September 2017
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/24091701.pdf

    The authority of EU law in Britain will end... [W]e are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice."
    Theresa May, Conservative Party conference speech, 2 October 2016
    http://press.conservatives.com/post/151239411635/prime-minister-britain-after-brexit-a-vision-of



    Reality: The UK will have to abide by all EU rules and regulations including those agreed by members states during transition.

    "During the transition period, where draft Union acts identify or refer directly to specific Member State authorities, procedures, or documents, the United Kingdom shall be consulted by the Union on such drafts with a view to ensuring the proper implementation and application of that act by and in the United Kingdom."

    Article 123, page 72

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...91366/20180319_DRAFT_WITHDRAWAL_AGREEMENT.pdf



    4. Full control of fisheries

    Promise: The UK will ‘take back control’ of fisheries policy

    “Leaving the EU means we will take back control of our territorial waters, and for the first time in 50 years we will be able to grant fishing access for other countries on our terms."

    DEFRA statement, 3 August 2017

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-operate-in-uk-waters-after-brexit-says-gove

    "[W]e will be an independent member of the body that negotiates and discusses access to waters, and it will be this Government who determine our fisheries policy.

    Theresa May, 5 March 2018

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commo...ribution-3CEB7781-DBF7-4736-8109-3FE1FD04E8FC



    Reality: The UK has backed down after the EU made access to UK waters on existing terms throughout the transition period a red line.

    “As regards the fixing of fishing opportunities within the meaning of Article 43(3) TFEU for any period falling within the transition period, the United Kingdom shall be consulted in respect of the fishing opportunities related to the United Kingdom… the Union shall offer the opportunity to the United Kingdom to provide comments on the Commission Annual Communication on fishing opportunities…”

    Draft withdrawal agreement, 19 March 2018, Article 125, Specific arrangements relating to fishing opportunities, p.78

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf



    5. An end to free movement

    Promise: Free movement will end in March 2019

    "Free movement will end in March 2019."
    No 10 spokesman, 31 July 2017
    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-free-movement-of-people-will-end-in-march-2019/

    “It’s a simple matter of fact that the four key principles of the European Union include free movement – we won’t be a member of the European Union when we leave.”

    Brandon Lewis, 27 July 2017

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...mber-rudd-boris-johnson-brandon-a7862306.html

    "[F]or those who come after March 2019 that will be different because they will be coming to a UK that they know will be outside the EU. I'm clear there is a difference between those people who came prior to us leaving and those who will come when they know the UK is no longer a member."

    Theresa May, 1 February 2018

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42896996



    Reality: Ministers now accept that free movement will continue during transition, with the only difference being the implementation of a new registration scheme which could have been done as an EU member state. The Prime Minister also quickly backed down over her demand that new arrivals from the EU should not have the same rights as those here already.

    “Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period.”

    Draft withdrawal agreement, 19 March 2018, Article 122, Scope of Transition period, p.74

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf


    6. New trade deals

    Promise: The UK will have new trade deals ready to come into force on 29 March 2019

    “Now the new trade agreements will come into force at the point of exit from the EU, but they will be fully negotiated and therefore understood in detail well before then.”
    David Davis, 14 July 2016
    https://www.conservativehome.com/pl...0-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    "Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.”
    David Davis, 14 July 2016
    https://www.conservativehome.com/pl...0-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

    “If the “Leave” side wins, it will indeed be necessary to negotiate a large number of trade deals at great speed. But why should that be impossible? … We will have at least two years in which the existing treaties will be in force.”

    Boris Johnson, The Telegraph, 16 March 2016
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...sive-there-is-only-one-way-to-get-the-change/


    Reality: The UK will not have any new trade deals ready to sign because they cannot even start negotiating them until the UK has left the EU. Even during transition, the UK will not be able to implement any new trade deals. New trade deals will take many years to negotiate, and we could lose some of the deals we currently enjoy with 65 countries around the world.

    “Notwithstanding paragraph 3, during the transition period, the United Kingdom may negotiate, sign and ratify international agreements entered into in its own capacity in the areas of exclusive competence of the Union, provided those agreements do not enter into force or apply during the transition period, unless so authorised by the Union.”

    Draft withdrawal agreement, 19 March 2018, Article 124, Specific arrangements relating to the Union's external action, p.77

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf


    7. No time limit to transition

    Promise: The transition period would last for two years and should not be time limited

    “As of today, these considerations point to an implementation period of around two years.”

    Theresa May, Florence speech, 22 September 2017

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ion-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

    “the period’s duration should be determined simply by how long it will take to prepare and implement the new processes and new systems that will underpin the future partnership”

    Government position paper on transition, 21 February 2018

    https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rQVCUXtdp4QM/v0



    Reality: The Government has agreed to a fixed transition period of just 21 months. All this does is extend the Brexit cliff-edge until 1 January 2021 – which is no way near enough time to negotiate the future relationship.

    “There shall be a transition or implementation period, which shall start on the date of entry into force of this Agreement and end on 31 December 2020.”

    Draft withdrawal agreement, 19 March 2018, Article 121 Transition period, p.74

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf
    all hail Brexish
     
  4. Alteran

    Alteran Scissors + Running = Ouch

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    I've made my feelings clear before - I've been against the idea Brexit from the day the campaign first started. Since the referendum results, my hopes have been for a "Swiss deal" or something close. Anything that continued the freedom of movement of people, trade and ideas.

    The thing that has annoyed me probably more than most is the leave campaign sticking their fingers in their ears to reason, evidence or experts, and shrugging off every dent to the economy as "an acceptable loss". Businesses have gone into administration, people have lost jobs, and the value of the pound has tanked against all other currencies. Maplin is one such example of a casualty on the High Street.

    ...and do you know what else annoys me? The fact that people foolishly believed The Sun and The Daily Fail that leaving will somehow stop immigration. It will stop immigration, but it will stop the good kind of immigration that had a net positive effect on our economy. It will do very little to stop immigration from outside the EU, which is what the xenophobic public are actually afraid of. Thereasa May vowed to limit immigration when she was still Home Secretary, and failed.
     
    Nsxile and Robshi like this.
  5. Somerset Cider

    Somerset Cider Old Pony

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    You are all looking at this the wrong way, May wants a bad deal that offends every one. This and the continually over reported bleats of the liberal and metropolitan elite are leading up a second referendum. The options will be.....
    One - Except this steaming pile of dog eggs of an exit deal.
    Two - Keep the status quo and remain in the EU.
    The government and the media are playing on the nations biggest growing fear, that of CHANGE!
    And that is the one thing that Brexit will deliver.
    Change in the way we are governed, the way the economy operates (the city and financial sector anre not the be all and end all..), change to the way education is conducted, the ending of the belief in the the under 25's that a university degree will lead to fame, fortune and highly paid, easy job. No Uni for me, 3 years at a tech college, I learnt a trade that has served me very well in a number of different jobs over the last twenty odd years.
    The housing crisis has nothing to do with Brexit, cause or cure, it is down to greed and lazy and corrupt governance that require CHANGE!
    The pound is not week, the city and the financial sector had kept it at an over inflated value for years to make huge profits on currency exchange deals until the crash in 2008. There are plenty of small to medium companies (and some big ones, JCB) out there who think that a lower value £ is wonderful and are busy exporting away, generating foreign income, generating jobs...
    The collapse of Toys'r'Us, Maplin and Country Wide is nothing to do with Brexit cause or cure, it is down to poor management and pricing (Toys'r'Us), being unable to compete with the online retailers (Maplin) and Country Wide collapsed after its deal to sell the business to Mole Valley was blocked by the Competition and Mergers Commission, who would rather, it would seem, see one struggling company fail than let another have to larger market share.
    Education and immigration are far too linked with each other to be affected by or have any affect on Brexit. Outside of the M25 there is a thriving and striving nation called the UK where companies (mainly manufacturing, but also civil engineering, construction, transport, agriculture....) are unable to fill huge numbers of vacancies because the metropolitan and university lead education system is failing completely to produce any one with any level of practical ability. The education system requires massive reform so that provides what the nation needs (NURSES!), not what seems to be easy for grades, gets bums on seats, fees and fat pay packets. A functioning education system that produces a population with skills would help to combat most of the inequalities in modern Britain, boost productivity, create a stable and diverse economy, but the thing that really needs to change is that there is so very, very much more to Britain than London.
    Voting Brexit does not make me a racist or a xenophobe, I am of immigrant stock, Danish, Irish, Scottish, German, Jewish and have plenty of pride in my ancestry and I know plenty of Poles who are very supportive of Brexit and what ever Polish equivalent may be. The truth of the matter is that Europe left us in 1991 with the creation of the EU and the Euro and to head down the superstate route.
    As long as there is change the nation will survive, evolve, develop, move on wards as will Europe. The EU will not, it has become too autocratic, controlling.
    I will continue to support Leave because it will lead to change.
     
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  6. Mane25

    Mane25 Honorary Pony

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    Not my favourite subject for discussion but just to weigh in. I don't want to debate the rights and wrongs of brexit itself, consider me neutral on it (or, in actual fact, I hold multiple conflicting views about the EU, I ended up not voting which was a difficult decision in itself), but the blame for any mess we're in has surely got to be with the government, not the referendum. The referendum asked us our opinion on whether we should leave the EU at some point; it didn't say anything about immigration, free movement, trade deals, timescale, etc. - the government decided all that. With such high turnout I'm not disputing the mandate even though it was close, but they could have said "OK, the people have spoken, but let's think about this for a while first and consider the options", maybe for a few years giving the time needed for a broad debate across the political spectrum, that would have been sensible as any decision made has wide implications. Instead they've gone with a very narrow interpretation of the result, which doesn't reflect the breadth of the reasons leave voters had for leaving (which also dilutes the mandate given by the referendum). It could still be made to work, but not without changes.
     
  7. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Brief comment as I'm on a phone, so in bullet points:

    • Brexit is happening. If the polls had swung to 80-20 against or something, that might be different, but they consistently show that large majorities on both sides would stick with their votes.

    • As a Remain voter who would certainly vote the same way again if sent back to 2016, and who feels Brexit will not be good for Britain, I nevertheless feel democracy must come first. I don't give the "it was only advisory" argument any credence.

    • I think we will eventually end up about where Norway is. Most people, even if reluctantly, would be able to live with that. The hardliners on either side are very vocal but relatively small in number.

    • And most of all... 17m voted Leave and 16m voted Remain. The people who voted the other way from you are not all stupid or reckless. Both "you lost, get over it" and "little Englander" are silly insults which get us nowhere. There's a tendency I really dislike in this social media age whereby those who don't agree with you are branded idiots by definition. We need a great deal less of that.
     
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  8. abrony-mouse

    abrony-mouse Light

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    I'm glad I started this thread as I like this topic on here :3 I think this is as calm a debate on Brexit as you can find anywhere. I feel like going over my own thoughts about Brexit since we've had a few strong posts on it and my feelings have changed a little. Anyway I'm still strongly remain because:
    1. I'm yet to see any clear evidence that it's a benefit (which isn't surprising because trade partnership agreements are almost never 100% benefit to anyone and therefore any subsequent deal will be either marginally better or marginally worse). I'm afraid that the disappointment some posters are expressing above in terms of the deal was kinda inevitable and can't just be stuck on May or the establishment. Prepare for more disappointments :(
    2. My own sense of British patriotism is offended by it because I see Britain as a global player and Brexit stinks of islander mentality to me - but I can understand pro-Brexiters who feel that Britain is more of a global player as a free nation. The Brexiter mentality tallies with the national mentality during empire too ie 'Britain ruling the waves'. I regret that there wasn't more of a patriotic pro-British (not pro-Europe) argument for remain
    Because I'm still pro-remain I guess I do favour a second referendum, even though it makes me feel pretty sick to say that because it's so humiliating and divisive, whatever the result. The justifications for having a second referendum eg that we didn't understand the nature of the deal won't really diminish this humiliation and the political extremes which are already too strong IMO will become even stronger as they feed on these ugly sentiments.

    I'll join @Loganberry in saying that being pro-Brexit doesn't make you stupid or racist, and nor should it be terrible economically. I think the reason British people get so angry about this is less about the rational side of weighing the evidence etc but more the dent to their British pride. The optimist in me hopes that the feeling of a national struggle to restore ourselves to global player status will overall be a good thing for our society - bringing us together kind of thing. The pessimist in me thinks that there is no way to convincingly restore ourselves to that status and the struggle to do so will only bring more frustration and disappointment of the sort that led us to join the EU in the first place
     
    #8 abrony-mouse, 2 April 2018
    Last edited: 2 April 2018
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  9. Cloudane

    Cloudane Element of Mostly Excessive Verbosity

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    I lean towards "wishing we could remain" as I have an instinctive dislike for division and a preference for unity. Especially as we live in a world now where things like trade agreements are how we avoid war - hence you see so much "we hate this country and what they're doing so we'll impose trade sanctions" rather than "we hate this country and what they're doing so we'll drop bombs, kill lots of people, and risk escalation with nuclear armed countries" (though many on Reddit seem to want the latter going by how much they sneer at sanctions whenever they come up).

    Somehow we've managed to see globalisation demonised as some evil conspiracy of the ultra-rich to take over the world (in some cases with a spot of antisemitism thrown in) and personally I think that's a dangerous mistake. I think globalisation keeps the peace. Obviously different people have different takes on it which I'll respect but that's mine. We've been getting on fine with a blend of capitalism and socialism for the best part of a century, making friends and closer links with other countries in the information age, and it's been a nice peaceful and prosperous time. Sure we've had bumps in the road and the inequality between generations, but people talk about how the system has completely failed (resulting in these huge knee jerk reactions like Brexit and Trump) and created a "poverty" epidemic because they can't afford to own their own home and a luxury car and luxury gadgets all at the same time like the boomers did (often via credit, unfortunately, so really they couldn't, they just did it anyway). Have a look at what happens in developing countries and then talk about poverty. We don't generally struggle to scrape together food and water! We do sadly have a crisis of the absolute poorest ending up using food banks and sleeping on the streets, don't get me wrong. But we're nowhere near a third world country, and to be honest I don't think that's a symptom of overall systemic failure or excessive immigration - I think it's a symptom of voting for heartless political parties who would rather try to indirectly kill the biggest burdens on society rather than bear them. (At least that's how I see it. I know my fair share of decent people who voted for them and have their own views and reasoning)

    However, I also don't know if Brexit is necessarily the end of the world or the cause of every company that has failed and will ever fail since the vote. I can't really agree with the thing of blaming every bad thing in the country nowdays on Brexit and its supporters. Maplin for example were already rubbish, and ours employed 5 or 6 people to just stand around in an empty shop trying to sell overpriced cables long before the word "Brexit" was even coined. No one shopped there, I had a browse sometimes when bored and 95% of the time it was just me being watched like a hawk by the half a dozen staff and asked if I need help a couple of times, and literally no one else on the premises. Very occasionally I bought something there if it was a cracking deal that appeared on HotUKDeals or similar, meaning it was most likely a loss leader, but that's about it. I'm disappointed as it's nice being able to get some cable same-day in a hurry, but based on how it operated I'm surprised it lasted as long as it did.
    The idea of pinning all ills on one event reminds me a bit of how disgruntled ex-fans of Apple see that company nowadays. I like Apple still and prefer them to the alternatives. But I would still concede that they've been stagnating terribly for a decade. They'd been doing so quite a bit before the death of Steve Jobs, but now that he's gone, everyone's all "it was all perfect until Jobs died". Was it heck...
    I'm also reminded of the smoking ban. Sometime around that time, largely because of increased taxation, ailing economy etc, lots of pubs closed. "It was because of the smoking ban, no one wants to go out any more" cried pretty much every smoker I know. No they were just rubbish pubs. I know the ones that closed here - miserable neglected little dives owned by Robinsons, only selling their awful beer and last saw a lick of paint in 1972. No loss to the world at all.

    Suppose you could say I'm a remainer but not a remoaner, I'd rather we'd remained and think the transition will be a major ball ache, but don't think it's the be all and end all and don't particularly want to see it cause division amongst ourselves.
     
    #9 Cloudane, 2 April 2018
    Last edited: 2 April 2018
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  10. TheDashingJack

    TheDashingJack "An excellent UKoE user."

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    You pretty much summed up all of my thoughts on this. I was admittedly for leaving the EU during the follow up to the referendum and although I am a little regretful now about that due to how badly the government has been handling the process, I feel that the sheer amount of finger pointing at Brexit for all of the country's problems is a little over the top and being excessive. The stores of Toys R Us and Maplin closing were less to do with consumers being less confident in Britain's post-brexit economy and more to do with the fact that they simply made bad business decisions that ultimately resulted in their downfall.
     
    #10 TheDashingJack, 19 April 2018 at 10:02am
    Last edited: 19 April 2018 at 6:14pm
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