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UK PonyCon UKPC 2018 unofficial weather forecast

Discussion in 'Conventions Discussion' started by Loganberry, 4 October 2018.

  1. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Okay, rather than cluttering up the main thread with this, I'm going to put this here. It's starting to get close enough to UK PonyCon 2018 to have some sort of idea about what the weather might do during con weekend. It's too far out as yet to be remotely certain, and I'll update this thread as things develop.

    Right now, it looks likely that con weekend will be unsettled and windy, so quite a change to the generally quiet weather we've had recently. As the BBC TV weather mentioned tonight, it's possible that an ex-tropical storm may cross the UK, and when that happens it means heavy rain and strong winds, often gales. So unfortunately a gentle, sunny UKPC weekend seems unlikely at this point.

    Temperatures should not be a concern. Neither of the two main weather models (ECMWF and GFS, if you want to know) are showing much out of the ordinary here -- I'd expect daytime temperatures to be in the mid-teens, falling to around 10 °C at night. No frost, no snow, no scorching heat. It is October, after all.

    Rain will be more of a pain, though obviously more at some times than others. Queue time on Saturday morning would probably be the most annoying, and irritatingly that period currently has the potential to be fairly wet. Best to have contingency plans if you're coming in cosplay, especially if it's not waterproof.

    Wind speeds look as though they may be quite high: gusts of 50 mph might be on the cards, which isn't anything out of the ordinary for an October storm but will make umbrellas pretty useless. I'm considering taking one of those emergency rain poncho things -- they're pretty light and can be stuffed in a pocket or bag.

    If you were in Bristol for last year's UKPC, much of the above will feel rather familiar! We had similar weather conditions then -- some may recall the torrential rain on Saturday afternoon, though thankfully most people were inside the venue at that point. Still, even then it was dry some of the time. :)

    Right, that's where I think we stand right now. I'll update this thread at the weekend, by which time things may start to be slightly clearer. But the initial takeaway is: be prepared for English October weather!
     
  2. anthony rothstein

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    Good job Nottingham is in the Twilight Zone
     
  3. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    It's a pony convention. Of course it's in the Twilight Zone. :p

    Anyway, back on topic... the forecast has improved slightly since Thursday. It still looks unsettled, and it seems unlikely that we'll get through the whole Fri-Mon period without rain. However, temperatures may get into the upper teens, which is above average for mid-October. It still looks quite windy, but until we know where ex-Tropical Storm Leslie is headed, it's impossible to tell whether that will just mean "quite breezy" or "actual gales". Next update on Tuesday! :)
     
  4. anthony rothstein

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    I actually hope we get a really massive storm, not during travel times so it doesn't effect getting to Nottingham, but when we're all there!
    All inside the con with rain and wind battering the windows. It's the best atmosphere.
     
  5. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    We had that last year, and tbh once was enough for me -- especially as there's nowhere in the venue itself to get a proper evening meal on Saturday and so I'd like to get outdoors without being drenched.

    Okay, I know I said Tuesday for the next forecast update, but... well, it's only a few minutes early. :p Things have deteriorated a bit again (from the POV of people hoping for quiet weather!) as you may have seen on the TV news or on weather sites/apps. It increasingly looks as though strong winds may be the dominant feature on Friday, with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph. That's not exceptional for an October storm, but it's certainly more than enough to be a nuisance and to make umbrellas completely useless!

    It looks likely that winds will be considerably stronger out to the west -- meaning Ireland (including NI) and the western half of Scotland. The Met Office has already issued a yellow warning for these areas for Friday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that upgraded to amber in some places later in the week. Please be aware of this if you're travelling in from those parts, especially if your journey involves planes or ferries.

    While the major computer models broadly agree that it's going to be very windy, they're still all over the place when it comes to rain. There does seem to be a suggestion of some heavy rain in the Midlands early on Friday morning, and possibly another bout on Saturday afternoon. In between, it's likely to be a case of blustery, squally showers -- they may only last a few minutes, but you could get extremely wet if you're caught out in one at the wrong time!

    On this score, you'll be pleased to know that there will be a cloakroom this year, run by the venue and charging £1 per item. Could come in very handy if you don't want to cart a soaking wet coat or bag around all day!

    Temperatures... on Friday and Saturday, they'll probably reach the upper teens, though it won't feel that warm in the strong winds, especially if it's raining too. Sunday could be cooler and fresher, and it may even be drier as well! Not nailed down yet by any means. Monday looks like being largely dry, though it's a full week away and so a lot could change between now and then. Next update will probably be on Wednesday night.
     
  6. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Okay, here's tonight's update. This may be the last one or I may do one more -- I'm not sure right now.

    Wind first, as that's the biggie this year with Storm Callum now having been officially named. It will hit Ireland and western coasts hardest, but it's certainly not going to be calm in the English Midlands either. These weather pegasi just can't keep quiet! :p

    The main forecasts and computer models are rock-solid in their agreement that both Friday and Saturday will be very windy, with gusts of 40-50 mph expected pretty much from breakfast time on Fri right through to after dark on Sat. They could even be a little higher than that (60+) in exposed areas, but the con venue is not one of those. It looks very likely that Sunday will be much less windy -- still breezy, but nothing like the gales of the previous two days.

    The Met Office has a yellow warning of wind out for Friday, covering all of Northern Ireland and a swathe down western Scotland. I wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to amber tomorrow (Thursday) in the most exposed parts. As I said last time, if you're flying in from Belfast or somewhere, you need to be prepared for some possible disruption. Pay particular attention to the Met Office warning update tomorrow, which should appear around midday.

    Back to Nottingham. The models don't agree when it comes to rainfall times and amounts, which is a pain. Right now, the likeliest scenario is for bands of heavy, squally rain during daylight hours on Friday, then a slightly drier day on Saturday with mostly light showers, though there may well still be a few heavier bursts. Sunday could see anything from a completely dry day to a pretty wet one -- there's huge disagreement in the model charts.

    Finally, temperatures. Although it probably won't feel it in the stormy conditions, Friday will be a warm day for the time of year, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper teens. If Saturday stays dry (or at least dryish) it could be even warmer: with some sun I wouldn't be surprised to see 20 °C being reached. Sunday looks likely to be a noticeably cooler day with temperatures down to the low teens (normal for mid-October), though there is a small chance of one more warm day.
     
    #6 Loganberry, 10 October 2018 at 11:56pm
    Last edited: 11 October 2018 at 1:25am
  7. Loganberry

    Loganberry Element of Custard

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    Okay, just a quick update tonight, as not much has changed since I last posted. In brief:
    • It's going to be very windy on Friday and Saturday, with winds gusting up into the mid-40s mph for many, many hours
    • Nottingham is about on the border of the very wet and not so wet zones, so it's massively uncertain how much rain there'll be -- but it'd take a miracle to stay entirely dry
    • If it's dry at any point on Saturday (more likely in the afternoon/evening) it could be very warm for October -- over 20 °C -- though the wind will take the edge off that
    • Sunday is likely to be drier, brighter and cooler
    That's my final update! Hopefully this unofficial forecast proves more than totally inaccurate and has helped at least one or two people to prepare. :)
     
    #7 Loganberry, 12 October 2018 at 12:04am
    Last edited: 12 October 2018 at 8:02am

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